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Fintech in 2019
Banks will begin to launch digitally-native products in earnest. Fintech co's will add checking, savings cards. Headlines will say that the two are converging, but will miss the underlying shift to demographically-tailored products. The products that win big are highly tailored to the demo they serve. The days of "big box" banking (all products to all people) are over.
Market volatility will cause less stock investing. Consumers will avoid crypto as prices c...ontinue to languish. High-yield savings products have already seen massive adoption, and will continue to grow.
Durbin-exempt debit interchange has proven to be a viable revenue model. Expect lots more apps issuing debit cards. Likewise, expect more instant cash-outs.
Ad-based acquisition is no longer profitable. Co's will shift to referrals, brand, product, and pricing differentiation. Free P2P was the magic feature for acquisition from 2013-2018, as was crypto trading in 2016-2018. Perhaps high-yield savings will be next? Good PFM tools may also be a viable hook.
Growth will restart for betting, gambling, and payday lending as regulations solidify.
Europe will continue to emerge as a major force in fintech. European fintech co's will successfully move to the US, taking share from incumbents. Lending companies will struggle to internationalize.
Banking charters will finally be issued. Some may realize that renting a charter is actually easier than having one's own.
US card processing rates will come under increasing pressure as other payment rails improve (ex: RTP) and new rails are launched (possibly including the use of cryptocurrencies). Debit push will continue to grow and threaten the ACH network.
Processors will become B2B lenders and issue cards. Those that don't have consumer apps applications will seek them.
As interest rates go up, new loan issuances will go down. Lenders chasing profits will push harder to digitize. Pullbacks in mortgages and SMB lending will put pressure on community banks and credit unions.
Macroeconomic volatility will scare fintech investors. Dollars will become highly concentrated in companies with strong economics. Brewing at the seed stage is a new class of consumer-driven fintech founders that shouldn't be missed though.
As the functionality becomes more atomic, fintech will be embedded everywhere. Moving money, holding funds, lending, etc. will become an important feature for a wide range of products.
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There goes $150 million in waste

So it's out!

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