Predict Golf

Our Methodology. Phil Mickelson has come up short on the 9th at Pebble Beach. He faces a seemingly impossible up and down to make par. But to no one's surprise, he hits a miracle shot to within 3 feet and sinks the putt. Why was this to no one's surprise? Because Phil is known as one of the best scramblers in the business. Of course knowing about Phil's strengths is one thing, but knowing about the strengths of every one of the 150 odd players in something like the AT& T is impossible. Fortunately, through today's tracking technology, there is data on every shot, hit by every player, in every tour event. So in our world, when we see Phil - or any other players - faced with that tough up and down, we look back at every other time in the last two years that he's hit a similar shot in similar conditions and forecast the probability of what happens next based on that prior experience. In fact, we do this for every shot a player plays in a round, simulating a full round of golf for each player at the course they are about to play. And then we do it again, and again, and again - around 10, 000 times per player. We do this for every player, and for all four rounds if the player makes the cut. And then finally for every simulation, we figure out the winner, and over the course of 10, 000 simulations assess how often each player wins to compute a 'modelled winning probability'. This probability represents a scientific value for the chances of each player winning. And if that scientific value is higher than the odds available in the sports betting markets then we have identified a money-making opportunity.
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Keywords: information technology & services