Super Greyhound Lay Profits

Greyhound selections.
Been doing a lot of work on selections recently, particularly on how to calculate which dogs will lose. The punters dilemma is this:
... Whenever we make a selection in the lay market we have to balance risk against reward.
The risk is obvious. The traps open and the favorite gets caught at the back. In its efforts to catch up, by the second bend, it causes crowding and the whole race ends up an utter mess with the dog you just laid at 20.0 romping home to win and wiping out your winnings from the past 7 days. An all too common scenario.
Greyhound racing is unpredictable.Prices are too short and the money comes late.So as with any betting we need a strategy. Our worst energy is gamblers fallacy.
The facts.
The market is not always correct. If it were, we would all be betting on the favorite to win every race and we would all be millionaires.
Timings are crucial.
A dog that is putting up faster times than other dogs in its last two races, all other factors being the same, should win or be close to winning.
The dog with the slowest times should theoretically come last.
Dogs dropping in grade tend to win their first race. Dogs rising in grade tend to win their second race in their new grade.However, the difference is not enough to create a system.
In laying, we are looking for AVERAGE dogs that don't stand out from the crowd so we can get a fairly good contestant at a fairly good chance that will not win more than 51% of the time.
Sounds simple.
It isn't. There are pitfalls to trap the unwary.
The next post will discuss how to rate dogs.
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Why the bookie always wins Part 4:
As we've seen. Bookies don't like to loose so the odds compiler has to do something about the number 1 selection.
So lets add another 5% chance to selection 1's chance of winning.
... Selection 1 is now given a 35% chance of winning or a65% chance of losing. So its odds are: 100/35= about 2.85 Selection 2 is at odds of 2.63 Selection 3 is at 2.0
So if 1 wins our punter gets a return of his £1 stake plus £1.85 Total £2.85 If 2 wins then our punter gets his £1 stake back plus £1.63 Total £2.63 If 3 wins then our punter wins his £1 stake plus £1 Total £2.00
Our bookie does better though.
If 1 wins, our friendly bookie loses £1.85 wins £2 on the other 2 selections. Profit £0.15 If 2 wins. Bookie loses 1.63 but wins £2 Profit 0.37 If 3 wins then Bookie loses £1 but wins £2,00 Profit £1
He can't lose and in the long-term you can't win with a traditional bookmaker.
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Today's tip for laying:
14:06 Perry Bar 4: Flavel Finch

Today's selection did exactly as we wanted it to and duly lost.
System is 1 point in profit. Odds 4.80

Why the bookie always wins part 3
Bookmakers aren't in the business of being nice to punters. They are a business and that business is making money. Before you bash them too much remember that they have substantial overheads. Odds compilers, shop staff, track feeds etc.
So how do bookies make money?
... Lets go back to our scenario from before and look at our odds again.
Contender 1. 25% chance of winning, odds 4.0 Contender 2. 33% chance of winning. odds 3.0 Contender 3 46% chance of winning odds 2.17
So if any contender wins then we break even and so does the bookmaker. But hang on... Our friendly bookie has expenses to pay and he'd like to make a profit as well.
So, how does he do it.
Let's add 5% to everybody's chances of winning.
Contender 1 30% chance of winning or 70% chance of losing. His odds change from 3/1 to 100/30. That's 4.0 to 3.33
Contender 2 is now 38% chance of winning. approx 13/8 or 2.63.
Contender 3 now 51% or even money or thereabouts Decimal 2.0
Let's make it easy. I'm going to put a pound on each of these contenders.
If contender 1 wins. I get my £1 stake back and £2.33 winnings. If contender 2 wins, I get my £1 stake back and 1.63 winnings. If contender 3 wins I get my £1 stake back and £1 winnings.
From the bookies point of view. If contender 1 wins then he loses £2.33 on contender 1 He gains £2 on the losers, He has made a loss of £0.33
If contender 2 wins: It costs him £1.63 on contender 2 winning. He collects £2 from the other 2 bets. He has made a profit of £1.37
If contender 3 wins. It costs him £1 on contender 3 winning. He collects £2 on the losing bets. He makes a profit of £1.00.
Better but not ideal for our bookie friend,
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Why the bookie always wins part 2
We looked in the last post at a simple balanced book where all contenders were equal But as we know to our cost, all contenders are not equal.
Lets look at a balanced book where things are not equal.
... Contender 1 has a 25% chance of winning or a 75% chance of losing. 3 chances against to 1 chance for. 3/1 or 4.0 decimal Contender 2 has a 33% chance of winning or a 66% chance of losing. 2-1 or 3.0 decimal. Contender 3 has the remainder of the chances. 46% or 100-46% chances of losing. 54% or just over even money. 2.17 decimal.
To work out the odds Divide 100 by the chances of winning.
Bet on all 3 and you break even. It's a balanced or 'round' book.
In the next post we'll go into how you never see a poor bookie.
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Why the bookie always wins part 1
Let's consider a 3 contender race. It can be horses, cars, motorbikes, you name it. Each contender has a 1 in 3 chance of winning. Or to turn it on its head, the contender has 2 chances of not winning and 1 chance of winning. That's a 2 to 1 chance against the win. That would be 3.0 decimal because we add 1 to the fractional odds.
... So all 3 contenders have a 33.3% chance of winning. In an ideal world, each contender would be at 2/1 or 3.0.
Bet 1, get 3 back. So if we backed all selections we would get 100% of our stakes back. This is a balanced book.
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Lay odds explained:
if we back a horse or a dog to win, we are in effect saying to the bookmaker, 'look... I reckon this horse or dog is going to win and I'm willing to give you money to prove it.' Your friendly bookie says, 'OK... I'll take your money but I'm confident that you're a mug and so if it does win, I'll give you more than you give me. I'll give you twice as much if it wins but I'll take your money if it loses. This is a 2/1 bet or 3.0 decimal.
... In lay betting you act as the bookie. The only difference between being a bookie and lay betting on the exchanges is that the market sets the odds.
so if a dog is priced at a lay price of 7.00 then as in backing, 1 point is the backers stake and 6.00 is the amount you will pay to the backer if the selection wins and you lose the bet.
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Decimal Odds explained.
Traditional British bookmakers use fractional odds, e.g 5/2, 6/4 etc. The betting exchanges use a system of decimal odds. This is farlyt easy to get your head around.
Firstly, take the decimal odds quoted on the exchange.... e.g, 2.50. Take 1 from the number which gives 1.50 or for every pound I bet, if I'm backing I will get 1.50 profit plus my pound stake returned. This is the same as 6/4 fractional
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It's 09:32 on Saturday morning. Today's greyhound selection to lose is:
Newcastle 15:37 3. Alnwick Sue
... if the lay price drops below 7.00 then it's worth a shot. Result after the race.
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