Land-Fx

Not worried
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy is strong, while warning that there may be some headwinds next year. With latest data showing that inflation in the economy remains muted, Powell said nothing to change market expectations for another hike in December. In Washington, Michelle Bowman, a Trump administration nominee to the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, cleared an important procedural hurdle on her path to joining the central bank by year’s end.
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Still talking
Chinese officials have outlined a series of concessions they are willing to make to the U.S. ahead of meeting between the two countries’ leaders at the G-20 in Argentina. While the commitments fall short of the major structural reforms demanded by the White House, talks are said to be constructive. Larry Kudlow, the head of President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council said yesterday that China and the U.S. are in touch “at all levels” over trade. Stocks in Asia rose on the improving mood-music, while the yuan strengthened.
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Not talking
British Prime Minister Theresa May is coming under increasing pressure over the Brexit deal her cabinet agreed to yesterday as ministers start to resign this morning. Of the three to announce they are stepping down – at the time of writing – the loss of Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab has been the biggest blow, with his decision to quit knocking 1 percent off the value of sterling. The currency came under further selling pressure after data showed that retail sales fell 0.5 percent in October, well below expectations for a 0.2 percent increase.
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Park the car (tariffs)
The Trump administration will hold off for now on imposing new tariffs on imported automobiles, according to two people familiar with the matter. Shares of Japanese car manufacturers jumped. It will also be good news for Germany where the economy shrunk for the first time since 2015 in the third quarter as the car industry there took a hit on the emissions scandal. China, the target of many of the White House’s tariff moves to date, will be able to handle the trade war just fine, according to a major European miner.
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Crude
Oil price action has moved from a selloff to a collapse, with West Texas Intermediate plunging 7.1 percent in yesterday’s session. The latest leg-down in the price came after OPEC warned that demand for its crude is falling faster than expected. A barrel of WTI for December delivery was virtually unchanged at $55.75 by 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time as the International Energy Agency welcomed the oil market’s return to surplus.
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Now, the hard part
The draft agreement on the U.K.’s exit from the European Union reached yesterday will be presented to government ministers in London today when Prime Minister Theresa May asks the cabinet to back the proposal. Should she get through this unscathed, she then faces the much bigger challenge of getting it passed by a parliamentary vote. Already Northern Ireland’s DUP, whose MPs support the minority Conservative government, have come out against it, while the opposition Labour party have also indicated they won’t support it. With the parliamentary vote not expected until closer to Christmas, there’s still a long way to go to seal the deal.
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The weekly analysis for the 12th of NOV 2018 - Land-FX
https://youtu.be/6RsAit1EvM0
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Still counting
Last Tuesday’s midterm elections are not over yet, with both Senate and governor races in Florida in the midst of a recount. There is now a dash to finish tallying up the millions of votes ahead of mandated deadline of 3 p.m. on Nov. 15, a task which some see as impossible. Congress returns to work this week with both sides promising to work together to avoid a partial government shutdown, a task which may be made more difficult by President Donald Trump’s demands for funding for his border wall.
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Yuan market
Authorities in China signaled tougher management of the yuan when the People’s Bank of China cut a pledge to allow the market to play a larger role in setting the exchange rate in its latest quarterly monetary report. With the phrase dropped from the report for the first time since 2013, China bears are shorting yuan proxies as traders see looming risks of monetary intervention. Chinese equities were the strongest performers in the region, after a promise from Premier Li Keqiang of more support for the private sector also helped lift sentiment.
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Pressure mounts
British Prime Minister Theresa May is coming under pressure to ditch her Brexit plan with strong domestic opposition – within her own party and other parliamentary supporters of her government – raising the prospect of defeat should it be voted on in Westminster. Another hurdle is the European Union’s insistence that the U.K. continues to adhere to the some of the bloc’s regulations, such as environmental rules, into which the country would have no input after the split. The pound dropped as the chances of a November summit to agree on a way forward with EU leaders rapidly fade.
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Crude bounce
Global oil benchmarks are rising this morning with a record run of losses looking poised to end, driven by increased speculation that OPEC and its allies will cut output next year. Saudi Arabia said there should be a reduction constituting about half the increase made earlier this year when prices spiked due to supply-shortage fears in part fed by Iranian sanctions. The comments, and the second policy U-turn this year, spurred a rise of as much as $1.09 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate for December delivery to $61.28. Taking a longer-term view of the oil market, one Saudi government-backed think tank has studied what a world without OPEC would look like.
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U.K. growth
This morning’s third-quarter GDP number saw British growth at the strongest level in two years, but included something of a sting in the tail as momentum stopped in August and September. The data also showed an improvement in the country’s net trade position as the deficit in goods fell to 9.7 billion pounds ($12.6 billion) in September. In Westminster, the focus continues to be on finding a Brexit deal that can both pass parliament and find European Union approval, with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, which Prime Minister Theresa May relies on for support, saying it will not back her current proposal.
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Crude bear
A barrel of West Texas Intermediate for December delivery dropped below $60 in trading this morning as the commodity heads for its longest losing streak on record. With prices now more than 20 percent below the high hit in early October, oil is now in a bear market. The tumble comes ahead of this weekend’s meeting with OPEC and its allies in Abu Dhabi, with producers suggesting that their next move might be to cut production. In the short term, technical factors suggest that there might be more downside for crude before a turnaround.
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Not ready
Democrats who take over control of the House in January are promising to launch probes into President Donald Trump’s policy decisions and personal financial affairs. The difficulty for the White House is that the president’s new chief lawyer has yet to take up his position, while his office is already severely depleted of staff. In other legal appointment news, Labor Secretary Alex Acosta, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and U.S. Appeals Court Judge Edith Jones are among those being considered to replace Jeff Sessions permanently as Attorney General. Tuesday’s election results still haven’t been finalized as a recount in Florida remains a possibility.
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No end to trade war
One thing that isn’t going to change, according to Gary Cohn, formerly President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser, is the U.S.-China stand-off. When asked at Bloomberg’s New Economy Forum in Singapore why the president was so focused on trade, Cohn said Trump had found “one economist on Amazon who thinks trade deficits matter, and he listens to him.” Speaking at the same event, BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink warned that the U.S. should not be picking fights with its creditors as the fiscal deficit grows, adding that the Treasury may run into a “supply problem.”
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Now what?
The most likely outcome from the election will be legislative gridlock in Washington. Donald Trump will find some of his signature campaign promises, such as the construction of a border wall with Mexico, are now in doubt. The president and his staff are also likely to face House investigations on personal finances and conduct. Market reaction has been muted, as investors welcome the predicted result, and put political worries to the back of their minds, at least for now.
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Democrats and Republicans win
The U.S. midterm election results are in line with market expectations: Democrats will control the House from January, while Republicans maintain their majority in the Senate. There will be a record number of women in the House, with the first female Muslim and Native American representatives elected. Looking forward to 2020, one trend that might worry GOP strategists is the party’s under-performance in the Midwestern and Rust Belt states that handed President Donald Trump his victory in 2016.
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Markets mixed
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.8 percent while Japan’s Topix index closed 1.2 percent higher, with Toyota Motor Corp. leading gains after boosting its profit outlook. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.2 percent lower at 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time in a fairly broad-based selloff amid lower-than-usual volumes. S&P 500 futures pointed to a drop at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 3.195 percent and gold was higher.
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